Reliable Power Supply Expected This Summer

The regional electric grid operator forecasts adequate energy to meet peak demand during the summer months across the Mid-Atlantic region, while the North American market monitor finds that record generation additions are helping to improve reliability in some regions.

PJM Interconnection, which manages the electric grid across 13 states including Pennsylvania, expects to ensure reliable service during the hot weather months, when increased use of air conditioning drives up electric demand. It is also prepared to use demand response when needed during extreme heat waves or equipment outages.

This year’s weather forecast calls for hotter-than-normal conditions in PJM’s Mid-Atlantic and more southern states, and typical temperatures in most of the Midwest. It is expecting peak load of 156,400 megawatts (MW) of demand, lower than its maximum generating capacity of 180,200 MW. In addition, customers enrolled in demand response programs agree to reduce energy use during extreme conditions, which can supply about 7,800 MW of additional power.

“While we expect to operate reliably this summer, the outlook resembles last year’s and reflects a new reality – continued load growth driven by data centers that is outpacing the addition of new generation,” Michael Bryson, senior vice president of operations, said in the summer outlook.  “This results in tightening operative reserve margins and greater risk.”

PJM has been struggling to modernize its regulations to bring new generation online faster while seeing rapid rise in demand for electricity from the increasing number of energy-intensive data centers locating in the region. At the same time, some fossil fuel-fired plants are being retired, reducing existing generation. Those converging factors are leading to rapidly rising utility bills for consumers.

The North American Reliability Corp., which independently monitors the North American electricity market, also released its summer reliability assessment. It finds that record generation addition have strengthened readiness for the summer season, even as demand continues to rise and elevated risks remain in some areas.

“The pace of change across the North American grid continues to accelerate, but industry is working diligently to construct the necessary generation and transmission needed to power the future,” said John Moura, director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis, in a statement. “We are seeing a record-breaking amount of on-peak capacity being interconnected in a single year strengthening system readiness for summer conditions. However, increasing risks for early fall and winter seasons reinforce the need for additional firm and dispatchable resources to maintain reliability and meet rising electricity demand.”

All areas of the U.S. are projected to have adequate resources for normal summer conditions. Summer resource capacity has risen by over 58 GW over the past year, much of it from solar and battery storage along with some new natural gas-fired generation, However, even with the improved outlook, challenges still loom from accelerating demand and rapid growth of large loads, that could impact reliability, NERC determined.