NERC: Blackouts Possible During Extreme Winter Weather

While all areas of the U.S. are expected to have adequate power supplies this winter under normal conditions, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) warned that several regions could face shortfall risks and blackouts during more extreme weather events.

NERC, which oversees the security and reliability of the nation’s electric grid, recently released its annual winter reliability assessment. The report said that two trends affecting the electric supply are rising demand for electricity coupled with the retirement of fossil-fuel generation and growth in battery resources. Peak demand for all areas has risen by 20 gigawatts, or 2.5%, since last winter, while total new resources added to the grid totaled 9.4 GW, or less than half of the demand increase.

Much of the surging increase is demand is due to the growth of power-hungry data centers, in addition to electrification of buildings and vehicles. Several of the areas that could face shortfalls are seeing a lot of data center development.

The areas that could see elevated risks include New England, parts of the southeast, Texas, and the Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

“Prolonged wide-area cold snaps can drive sharp increases in electric demand and threaten reliable generation and availability of fuel supplies for natural gas generation,” the assessment states. It notes that four severe arctic storms have hit parts of the U.S. since 2021, exposing fuel transmission and generation infrastructure to freezing conditions, which can impact their ability to operate.

Winter Storm Elliott, a bomb cyclone that brought arctic temperatures and high winds to much of the eastern U.S. over Christmas 2022, caused natural gas infrastructure to freeze up, reducing power generation and leading to widespread blackouts. A NERC report after that event found that nearly 80% of generation units made failed to perform adequately at low temperatures and made 11 recommendations for actions to prevent similar failures during future extreme winter weather.

Among those actions were cold weather reliability improvements for power generators and natural gas infrastructure, as well as for the energy grid in general. Natural gas is the largest fuel source for power generation in the U.S. and its infrastructure is susceptible to freezing.

The NERC report noted that “the performance of natural gas production and supply infrastructure during peak winter conditions will again have a significant impact on reliability,” and highlighted it as an “essential fuel” in winter.

The report notes that the cold weather reliability standards introduced in 2023 have been improved, which should help operators ensure preparedness.

The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission also recently released its 2025 winter reliability overview reports from the Energy Association of Pa. (EAP) as well as the state’s major natural gas distribution companies, including Columbia Gas and People’s Natural Gas. The reports detail how each utility is preparing to maintain reliable service throughout the winter.

Total natural gas consumption across all sectors is forecast to increase by approximately 2.5% compared to last winter, the EAP found, with total demand expected to reach 240.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) – up from 234.7 Bcf last season. For residential consumers, home heating costs are expected to be only slightly higher, with anticipated colder temperatures are largely offset by lower commodity prices.