EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Sees Trade Tensions

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) posted its Short-Term Energy Outlook in April, providing forecasts for energy markets in the United States. The impact of President Trump’s international trade policies dominated the forecast.

According to EIA officials, oil prices fell sharply in early April, dropping 14% in just five days, after a series of tariff announcements. On April 2, President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports, prompting swift retaliation from China, which announced a 34% tariff on U.S. goods two days later. At the same time, the OPEC countries surprised markets by accelerating plans to increase production starting in May. These developments sparked renewed uncertainty around oil prices and energy supplies.

Lower gasoline prices are likely to have the most visible short-term effect on Western Pennsylvanians. EIA experts now expect summer gas prices to average around $3.10 per gallon, 20 cents cheaper than the previous forecast and the lowest summer average since 2020, when adjusted for inflation. The price decrease could bring some relief to households and small businesses already managing tight budgets.

 Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain volatile. The EIA now projects Brent crude to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and fall to $61 in 2026, both downward revisions from previous forecasts. Slower global oil demand and rising supply contribute to that outlook, creating more uncertainty for regional planning.

China’s new tariffs are expected to hit U.S. propane exports particularly hard. Propane, which is produced and transported through supply chains that include facilities in Pennsylvania, may see declining prices as export demand falls. That could strain producers and storage operators in the region. Meanwhile, demand for natural gas is projected to grow. The EIA forecasts an 18% increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in 2025, thanks to new export terminals coming online.