PJM: Adequate Power Capacity for Winter Heating Season

PJM, the regional electric grid operator for 13 Mid-Atlantic states, says it will have enough power capacity to serve its 67 million customers this winter, but continues to warn that demand for electricity is rising faster than new generation is being added.

Power consumption rises during the winter months due to heating needs, and extreme weather can also cause generation outages. This winter PJM expects to have 180,800 megawatts (MW) of capacity and is forecasting peak electric demand of about 145,700 MW. That would set a new winter record, after reaching an all-time winter high of 143,700 MW on Jan. 22. It has added almost 5,000 MW of new generation, however because most of it is solar, which is intermittent, that translates to just about 1,000 MW of operational capacity, a PJM release indicates.

The National Weather Service is predicting slightly warmer than average temperatures along the East Coast, normal temperatures for Western Pennsylvania, Ohio, and the more Midwestern states in PJM’s region. However, the weather is also expected to be wetter than average.

PJM, which has been seeing a surge in demand due to rapid development of data centers and continuing electrification of homes and industry, has for several years been wrestling with a tightening supply of electricity because new generation facilities are not coming online fast enough. Finding ways to rapidly bring more power to the grid continues to be top issue for regulators and government officials.

While PJM is forecasting a generation reserve margin of 7,500 MW this winter after taking into account expected outages, that number is down from last year’s 8,700-MW reserve. “The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues,” noted Aftab Khan, PJM executive vice  president of operations.

The grid operator also said it expects to maintain reliable service even if a more extreme cold weather event occurs that results in power generation outages. However, an event such as Winter Storm Elliott in 2022, when high winds, snow, and freezing temperatures led to power outages from generation failures due to frozen equipment at natural gas-fired plants, could leave the region vulnerable. PJM and the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) gave taken steps since then to strengthen operators’ winter preparedness.