DOE Report Finds U.S. Grid Faces Reliability Risks

The U.S. power grid is not ready to meet the increased energy needs of AI in the coming years, which will put national security at risk, a recent Department of Energy report indicates.

The report, Evaluating the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid, found that the “status quo is unsustainable” if the current schedule of fossil fuel retirements remains unchanged, resulting in significant reliability risks within five years and the inability to meet expected demand for AI data centers.

With projected power demand growth, much of it from data centers, and scheduled retirements, the risk of power outage hours could increase from single digits currently to more than 800 hours a year, modeling indicated. The report estimates an additional 100 gigawatts (GW) of peak hour supply is needed by 2030, with half of it directly attributed to data centers.

One area that would see the biggest outage risk is the Mid-Atlantic region served by PJM Interconnection, which serves all of part of 13 states, including Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia. Under a scenario where scheduled plant closures are allowed to occur, PJM customers would see 430 blackout hours per year. A large number of data centers are clustered in the Mid-Atlantic, particularly northern Virginia.

The report assumes that 104 GW of scheduled plant closures by 2030 will be offset by 210 GW of new generation sources, however it notes that just 22 GW of that will be from baseload sources, primarily fossil fuel and nuclear plants that produce electricity 24/7. The remainder would be from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.

The report lays out the case for executive orders Trump has signed to keep coal and natural gas plants open past their retirement dates by invoking a national emergency. “Renewables have been subsidized while dispatchable energy sources such as coal, oil and gas, and nuclear have been minimized by environmental activism that hinders American energy production,” a fact sheet indicates. “Firm, reliable energy sources such as coal, oil, and gas, which the Trump Administration has already undertaken historic permitting reform to enable, are needed to ensure we can continue to supply adequate energy to meet the demands of our re-industrialization, manufacturing centers, and innovators while keeping the cost of living low for all Americans.”

However, environmental and consumer groups are challenging some of these orders, arguing that the federal government’s intervention in the power markets isn’t needed, and is not legal. A group that includes the National Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club filed a rehearing request with the DOE to reconsider an emergency order to keep the Eddystone oil and gas power plant in eastern Pennsylvania open past its retirement date. The request argues that DOE overstepped its authority because no national energy emergency exists.