Data, Crypto Growth Highlights Need for Policy Changes

Growth in data centers and cryptocurrency mining through 2030 could mean higher electric generation costs, as well as a spike in power sector carbon emissions, a recent study by the Open Energy Outlook Initiative found.

The initiative, a collaboration between Carnegie Mellon University and North Carolina State University, modeled the system-level impacts that rapidly increasing electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining can have on the U.S. energy landscape. Under current policies, continued digital-infrastructure growth could push wholesale electricity costs up about 8% nationally and add roughly 275 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, about 30% more than originally anticipated.

The study stresses that these outcomes are not inevitable, However, without coordinated planning and substantial, fair cost allocation, surging local demand will lean heavily on older, higher-emitting fossil fuel power plants in many regions. This is a particular issue when considering the already aging U,S, energy infrastructure.

Regional electric grid operator PJM’s December 2024 capacity auction already signals a steep increase in the price of electricity, where prices jumped from $30 to  $270 per MW-day, triggering state-level pushback and emergency measures. That spike, the report indicates, stemmed from rapid demand growth in data center hubs like Northern Virginia, combined with multi-year delays in brining new capacity and transmission online Without policy change, much of that demand would be met by keeping coal plants online, driving regional prices up more than 25%.

The report, as well as the June 2025 Open Energy Outlook Report, outline several policy tools, such as requiring large customers to shoulder infrastructure costs, expanding transmission to tap renewable resources, and creating flexible contracts that reward load-shifting (with crypto being more flexible than hyperscale data centers). State experiments in Texas, Virginia, and Oregon, along with Federal Energy Regulatory Commission interconnection reforms, offer partial models.

These risks are already hitting consumer bills in PJM states. Pennsylvania utilities, for example, are passing auction-driven costs onto households and businesses, with some facing double-digit increases. Unless policy keeps pace, the report indicates that the costs of powering the digital economy will fall on consumers and climate alike.